Model Assumptions

What are some of the key assumptions underlying the En-ROADS Baseline scenario?
All equations and parameters in En-ROADS are included in the ~400 page Reference Guide. Some of the key assumptions are listed below. For the En-ROADS B...
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 3:33 PM
Does En-ROADS include climate “tipping points” such as large-scale methane release from permafrost?
En-ROADS does not include explicit modeling of climate “tipping points,” but you can explore some of them for yourself by changing the Assumptions. Because ...
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 3:43 PM
What is the background and meaning of your 'Business as Usual' Scenario?
To understand the scale and scope of a challenge, modelers start with a reference scenario. This is also variously called “business as usual” (as in En-ROAD...
Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 2:39 PM
Why does the temperature in the En-ROADS Business as Usual scenario go up so high?
Key points: The En-ROADS Business as Usual (BAU) baseline scenario is not our prediction of the future. It’s a reasonable starting point for experimentat...
Fri, Oct 2, 2020 at 2:04 PM
Some have said that a better Business as Usual (BAU) scenario is the SSP1 baseline or SSP4-6.0, which lead to about 3.0°C by 2100. Why is the temperature in the En-ROADS BAU scenario so much higher?
Limiting temperature increase to 3.0°C (or lower) in 2100 requires action, and estimates by experts saying that the new Business as Usual (BAU) is 3.0°C ass...
Wed, Oct 7, 2020 at 5:08 PM
What is the baseline year from which the temperature change is measured?
The temperature change you see on the right-hand side of En-ROADS is the change in global temperature from pre-industrial times (averaging over the period 1...
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 3:49 PM
Does En-ROADS account for inflation in the future?
Yes, En-ROADS incorporates inflation through using constant year purchasing power parity (PPP) data for GDP, which bakes in inflation. Therefore we can assu...
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 3:49 PM
Why are all renewable energy sources grouped together in En-ROADS?
Renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and marine energy) are grouped together in the online En-ROADS simulator, although wind, solar, an...
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 4:04 PM
Does En-ROADS account for changes due to COVID-19?
We have not adjusted En-ROADS in response to climate and energy impacts due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.  While the impacts of the coronavirus ...
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 4:05 PM