En-ROADS doesn’t include hydrogen as an option for road and rail transport because battery electric vehicles have already become the main alternative to fossil fuels in these areas. While hydrogen fuel cells are technically feasible for vehicles like trains, buses, or trucks, their uptake is expected to remain very limited. Low-carbon hydrogen is costly to produce and transport, and would require building an entirely new distribution network. A small niche market exists for hydrogen buses and trains, but it has shown little growth and some projects have failed to scale (Example).

Instead, En-ROADS represents hydrogen only where it may realistically play a role in transport decarbonization: aviation and maritime shipping and transport. These “hard-to-electrify” sectors make up a small share of transport energy demand (about 15%) but are among the few areas where hydrogen and its derivatives (like ammonia or e-fuels) may offer viable alternatives to fossil fuels. To explore this in En-ROADS, use the “Hydrogen subsidy and fueling infrastructure” slider under the Transport Electrification advanced view. This slider boosts hydrogen use in air and water transport.

As more pilot projects emerge, we will continue to assess whether hydrogen for road and rail becomes a more plausible option to include in En-ROADS.