Key messages

• AI is predicted to increase economic growth and electricity demand, although the extent of its future impact is uncertain.
• To simulate greater energy consumption due to AI in En-ROADS, increase the Economic Growth slider.

Economic growth and energy demand

Economists generally expect AI to increase global GDP growth, although estimates vary. For example, Goldman Sachs predicts that global GDP will increase by $7 trillion over 10 years due to AI, and McKinsey estimates it will grow $17.1-$26.6 trillion per year, whereas a recent MIT study predicts only a 0.7% increase in U.S. GDP during the next 10 years due to AI.

Energy demand in En-ROADS does not currently include estimates of future AI-driven economic growth or energy consumption. Economic growth and energy demand in the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario is compared against the IEA World Energy Outlook (2023), NGFS (2023), and SSP Database Version 2.0 (2018). The scenarios and projections from these sources largely predate the mass adoption of ChatGPT and other AI technologies.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) is having a significant impact on the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of data centers. In 2024, data centers accounted for around 1% of global electricity consumption, according to the IEA. By 2026, electricity consumption from data centres, AI, and the cryptocurrency sector could double. After globally consuming an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022, data centres’ total electricity consumption could reach 1,050 TWh (3.8 exajoules) in 2026, an increase of 590 TWh (or 2.1 exajoules). For reference, 1,050 TWh is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of Japan.

According to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, data centers in the U.S. could account for up to 12% of all U.S. electricity consumption by 2028, or 132 gigawatts annually, triple what they consumed in 2023.

While many data center operators are planning to meet increased electricity demand with renewable energy (e.g., Google), others are turning to nuclear power (e.g., Microsoft).

How do I simulate the effect of increased energy demand due to AI in En-ROADS?

We expect to be able to update the model to reflect updated forecasts in 2025. In the meantime, the primary way to simulate the impact of greater energy demand is by increasing the Economic Growth slider.

See an example scenario in En-ROADS.

Further reading

Generative AI – The Power and the Glory: A useful overview of the energy demand of AI data centers, from BloombergNEF.