The primary way to simulate a shift toward plant-based diets in En-ROADS is by adjusting the “Food from animals” slider located in the “Agricultural Emissions” advanced settings. This captures most of the major climate-relevant impacts of reducing animal-based food consumption.
The “Food from animals” slider affects the following:
- Methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from livestock: Lower animal production leads to reduced emissions from animal digestive systems and manure.
- Fertilizer use for animal feed crops: With less animal feed needed, fertilizer demand (and resulting N₂O emissions) declines.
- Land use and deforestation: When less land is needed for grazing and growing livestock feed, there's less demand to clear forests and convert natural ecosystems into farmland—allowing more forests and wild areas to remain intact. This preserves the carbon stored in the land and allows vegetation to continue removing carbon from the atmosphere.
- Increased demand for food crops: Shifting to plant-based food increases demand for food crops slightly (and the fertilizer and land they require). However, this effect is smaller than the reductions from cutting animal product consumption. Producing animal-based foods uses more land, on average, than plant-based foods, because large areas of cropland are used to produce animal feed rather than to feed humans directly.
The slider does not include:
- Transportation emissions: Transportation emissions, which include emissions from moving livestock and feed, are not affected by this slider. In En-ROADS, transportation demand scales with GDP, not food system changes.
- Refrigeration and cold chain emissions: Changes in refrigeration needs due to dietary shifts are not represented.
How to approximate these additional considerations:
- You can slightly increase the “Transportation Efficiency” slider to roughly represent reductions in transport emissions.
- You can slightly reduce the “F-gases” slider in the “Waste and Leakage” advanced settings to estimate changes in refrigeration-related emissions.
These are only partial stand-ins. Future versions of En-ROADS may more fully represent these demand-side food system impacts.
Additional actions related to food and agriculture:
Beyond shifting diets to reduce animal product consumption, En-ROADS includes other solution areas in the food and agriculture sector under the “Agricultural Emissions” advanced settings. For example, you can reduce food waste using the “Food waste” slider, or lower the emissions intensity of the food production by adjusting the “Methane and nitrous oxide from livestock” and “Methane and nitrous oxide from crops” sliders.