Overview for the En-ROADS graph “Extinction Risk of Endemic Species.”


Big Messages:

  • Rising global temperatures increase the likelihood of biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation, and species extinction. Endemic species—those found in only one specific region—are particularly at risk due to their small population sizes and limited geographic range.
  • For a global temperature rise of 3.3ºC by 2100, one in eight of all species on Earth are projected to be at very high risk of extinction, but that figure is uncertain and may be much higher especially for endemic species (IPCC AR6 WGII 2022, p. 56).
  • Limiting global temperature rise to 2ºC by 2100 can dramatically reduce extinction risks, helping to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem stability.


Key Dynamics:

  • Endemic species are particularly at risk of extinction from climate change. Unlike species that are more widespread, endemic species have limited options for relocating, making them especially vulnerable to habitat shifts and extreme weather events.
  • Ocean endemic species (the blue line) are more vulnerable than land species (the brown line). Marine species tend to be more sensitive to temperature changes than land species. Many also face extra dangers like pollution and overfishing (Manes et al., 2021; IPCC SROCC, 2019).
  • Delayed response to action. Due to delays in the climate system, climate policies implemented today will only begin to show noticeable reductions in the extinction risk of endemic species starting in the 2040s. This is because this impact is driven by temperature change, which takes years to respond to changes in emissions.


Facilitator Tips:

  • This graph shows the extinction risk of endemic species across various groups, including animals, plants, corals, and plankton.
  • On land, the areas with the highest extinction risk for endemic species are small island nations, Central and South America, East Africa, and New Zealand (Manes et al., 2021).
  • In the ocean, the areas with the highest extinction risk for endemic species are the Mediterranean and Southern Atlantic Ocean (Manes et al., 2021).
  • Climate change isn’t the only problem. Pollution, deforestation, and overfishing also make it harder for species to survive.


Equity Considerations:

  • Rural and Indigenous communities will be disproportionately affected by biodiversity loss, as they depend heavily on natural ecosystems for food, livelihoods, and cultural practices (EPA, IPBES).


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