Overview for the En-ROADS graph “Ecosystem Shifts from Warming.”


Big Messages:

  • Warming influences an area’s weather, water supply, temperature, humidity, and vegetation, which can cause the ecosystem to change and affect the types of life that can survive there.
  • As global temperatures rise, large areas of land will undergo ecosystem shifts, forcing plant and animal species to relocate, adapt, or face extinction. For example, Arctic tundra may change to temperate grassland. These changes can disrupt farming, livelihoods, and economies, especially in communities that depend on stable ecosystems for food and jobs.
  • Limiting global temperature rise to 2ºC by 2100 will dramatically reduce global land area undergoing major ecosystem changes, protecting biodiversity and natural resources.


Key Dynamics:

  • The risks of ecosystem shifts increase sharply at higher temperatures. The black line of the Baseline Scenario gets steeper as temperature increases, because warming affects carbon, water, and biological cycles in a way that speeds up ecosystem changes. This underscores the importance of cutting emissions quickly.
  • Delayed response to action. Due to delays in the climate system, climate policies implemented today will only begin to show noticeable reductions in ecosystem shifts from warming starting in the 2040s. The impact is driven by temperature change, which takes years to respond to emission reductions.


Facilitator Tips:

  • At 1.5°C of warming, the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau and the boreal forests in northern Canada and Russia will be among the first to experience major changes (Warszawski et al., 2013).
  • At 3°C of warming, the Amazon rainforest, boreal forests in northern Canada and Russia, grasslands in eastern India, and the savanna regions of the Horn of Africa face a high risk of major transformations (Warszawski et al., 2013).
  • Most of these ecosystem shifts are not in drylands, despite increased aridity from warming. The “Arid Land Expansion from Warming” graph shows the growth of very dry (arid and hyperarid) regions. Some regions are expected to become drier with warming, but this may not always lead to major ecosystem shifts. Higher atmospheric CO2 levels can help plants use water more efficiently, allowing vegetation to survive in conditions that might otherwise be too harsh (Warszawski et al., 2013).


Equity Considerations:

  • Indigenous and rural communities will be disproportionately affected. Many rely on local ecosystems for food, livelihoods, and cultural traditions, making them highly vulnerable to ecosystem shifts (EPA).


Resources: