Overview of the “Wildfire Danger Days from Warming–Map” in En-ROADS. 


Big messages:

  • As global temperature rises, weather conditions that increase the risk of wildfires will become more frequent in some regions. Taking effective climate action by rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions now can mitigate future wildfire risk across the globe.
  • Increasing wildfires due to warming have two effects on the climate: more emissions from burning sequestered carbon, and less capacity of land to remove CO2, due to more deforestation and forest degradation.
  • Wildfires can have devastating impacts on local communities, including disruptions to critical infrastructure, local economies, and human health (WFCA, 2024).
  • Wildfires present risks to local ecosystems, significantly influencing both wildlife populations and vegetation dynamics by destroying and fragmenting habitats (WFCA, 2024).


Facilitator Tips:

  • Use the search function to zoom in on the location relevant to the audience. Compare the Baseline Scenario in a recent year (e.g., 2020) to a future year (e.g., 2100) to highlight the increase in wildfire danger for that location. After creating a reduction scenario, compare the Baseline and Current Scenario in the future year to highlight the impact of mitigation efforts and the need for adaptation measures. 
  • The risk of wildfire is influenced by local weather conditions such as humidity, precipitation, temperature, and wind. These factors are combined to determine wildfire danger days for each location, which are the days at highest risk of wildfire (top 5% of the Fire Weather Index ratings between 1971-2000 for an area). 
  • Net carbon sinks to net carbon sources. Large tropical rainforests, such as those found in the Amazon Basin, Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia, are critical carbon sinks. Increased risk of wildfires in these regions could lead to large releases of sequestered carbon in the form of greenhouse gas emissions and further global warming.


Equity Considerations:

  • Wildfire impacts exacerbate pre-existing risks and vulnerabilities, disproportionately affecting underserved and marginalized populations, which in turn deepens social inequities (Thomas, 2024). 
  • “Inequity in U.S. wildfire emergency response: Research shows that [US] counties with higher black and lower-income populations receive less support in wildfire disasters” (Society for Risk Analysis, 2023).


Technical Clarifications:

  • Wildfires include all unplanned, uncontrolled, and unpredictable fires in a forest, grassland, savannah, brushland, or cropland. 
  • The map is sourced from Probable Futures’ “Change in wildfire danger days” map.
  • The light gray area indicates regions where data is either unavailable or there is not significant vegetation.
  • The map is divided into squares that are approximately 22 square kilometers (km2) in area.
  • The map only shows changes of 0.5°C between 1.0-3.0°C of global temperature increase.