Overview of the En-ROADS graphs “Deaths from Extreme Heat” and "Deaths from Extreme Heat by Region."


Big messages:

  • As global temperatures rise, more people will be exposed to deadly heat. 
  • Strong climate policies that lower emissions can reduce the number of deaths from heat exposure.
  • Health and education policies to raise public awareness and expand access to cooling resources—like air conditioning and shaded areas—can help prevent heat-related deaths.


Key Dynamics:

  • Health risks from extreme heat increase sharply at higher temperatures. In the global version of the graph, the slope of the black Baseline Scenario rises faster as temperature increases, emphasizing the importance of preventing extreme warming.
  • Delayed response to action. Due to delays in the climate system, climate policies implemented today will only begin to show noticeable reductions in deaths from extreme heat starting in the 2040s. This is because this impact is driven by temperature change, which takes years to respond to changes in emissions.


Facilitator Tips:

  • Use the regional version of this graph, “Deaths from Extreme Heat by Region,” to show how some regions will face much higher death rates from extreme heat than others, reflecting local differences in vulnerability. 
  • These graphs only show deaths from extreme heat. As the world warms, fewer people will die from exposure to cold. In some regions such as northern Europe and Australia, the reduction in cold-related deaths could be larger than the increase in heat-related deaths. However, in regions such as southern Europe and southeast Asia, increased deaths from extreme heat are projected to be much higher than reductions in deaths from cold (Vicedo-Cabrera, 2018).


Equity Considerations:

  • Extreme heat worsens air pollution and its health effects, creating a dangerous feedback loop. Low-income communities and people of color are particularly vulnerable, as they are more likely to live and work in areas with high pollution, such as near highways and industrial facilities. Transitioning to cleaner energy not only reduces emissions and slows temperature rise but also directly lowers air pollution, reducing these risks (WRI). 


Resources: