Overview of the En-ROADS graph “Outdoor Labor Losses from Extreme Heat.”


Big messages:

  • People who work in outdoor heavy labor sectors such as agriculture and construction already lose an average of over two weeks of work per year globally due to heat stress, and this will get worse as global temperatures continue to rise.
  • Reducing emissions is crucial for minimizing the increase in outdoor labor losses caused by extreme heat. More ambitious climate policies lead to lower temperature increases, which in turn protect workers and reduce economic impacts in sectors like agriculture and construction.


Key Dynamics:

  • The black line of the Baseline Scenario rises because global warming increases heat and humidity, limiting work hours and leading to more health risks for outdoor workers.
  • Delayed response to action. Due to delays in the climate system, climate policies implemented today will only begin to show noticeable reductions in outdoor labor losses starting in the 2040s. This is because these impacts are driven by temperature change, which takes years to respond to changes in emissions. 


Facilitator Tips:

  • Pair this graph with the "Deaths from Extreme Heat," “Extreme Heat Days—Map,” and “Extreme Humidity and Heat Days—Map” to show how some regions will face much higher impacts than others.
  • Adaptation is important, but it won't fully solve the problem. Note that this graph assumes no adaptation measures are in place. One common adaptation strategy is shifting work from the hottest hours of the day to cooler periods. For example, moving the three hottest hours to the coolest three can reduce productivity losses by around 25% (Parsons et al., 2021).
  • At higher global temperatures, the ability to adapt decreases. As temperatures continue to rise, even the coolest hours of the night can become unsafe for outdoor labor in many parts of the world.


Examples:

  • Doha, Qatar in August: 30 minutes of work would be lost between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm in the afternoon in the Baseline Scenario by 2100, relative to 15 minutes today.
  • Atlanta, United States in July: 8 minutes of work would be lost between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm in the afternoon in the Baseline Scenario by 2100, relative to 5 minutes today.


Equity Considerations:

  • Developing economies reliant on labor-intensive sectors like agriculture and construction will face the greatest economic losses from extreme heat, which could widen the gap between these economies and wealthier nations that experience fewer heat-related impacts. 
  • Workers in countries with longer work hours or fewer worker protections may face higher heat-related productivity losses and health risks due to climate change.
  • Implementing strong worker protections, such as mandated rest breaks, access to shade and hydration, and flexible work hours during extreme heat, will become increasingly essential.
  • Unsafe work conditions lead to risks like premature death, injuries, heat-related illnesses, traumatic injuries, and acute kidney injury. Heat exposure might also contribute to chronic kidney disease and can increase chemical absorption, affecting pregnancy and mental health (Parsons et al., 2021, p. 6).