In the landscape of global energy-land-climate model scenarios, the En‑ROADS Baseline Scenario is most comparable to the NGFS Current Policies Scenario produced by three large Integrated Assessment Models and used in the IPCC reports.

For an introduction to the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario, visit the En-ROADS User Guide.

A key procedure in testing our simulators involves comparing their results with other models, particularly the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IAMs aid scientists and policymakers in understanding climate change dynamics and human impact. By comparing against standardized scenarios used by IAMs, we test assumptions and build confidence that the simulator’s results reflect the best understanding of the scientific literature. 

For more about how we test and build confidence in the simulator, see the En-ROADS Simulator Science page. 

Detailed comparisons—including graphs of En-ROADS results alongside NGFS and other models— are available in the Model Comparison—Future section of the En-ROADS Technical Reference.

Updates to the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario

We routinely update En-ROADS as new science and data become clear and vetted. Occasionally this involved changes to the Baseline Scenario itself. Updates to En-ROADS are recorded in the release notes.

What if I want to change some of the assumptions in the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario?

Researchers draw different conclusions about the underlying parameters that compose baseline scenarios. We encourage curious users to vary the assumptions in En-ROADS under the Assumptions menu. There you can change factors tied to the climate, economy, land use, and energy system to explore how sensitive the model is to their changes. We picked one set of assumptions to be our default in the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario, but users can select a different suite of assumptions as a starting point, and then test policies and engage their audiences from there. The assumptions can be accessed by clicking on Simulation in the top menu bar of En-ROADS and selecting Assumptions. 

Further information can be found in the En-ROADS Technical Reference.