In En-ROADS, the adoption of electric vehicles and equipment is tied to market, financial, and policy drivers. Users can subsidize new electrification technologies, build charging infrastructure, and restrict fuel-based alternatives.
The main sliders for electrification in En-ROADS add a subsidy to the purchase cost of either electric vehicles (in the case of the Transport Electrification slider) or electric equipment (in the case of the Buildings and Industry Electrification slider). Additionally, increasing the main Transport Electrification slider also scales up infrastructure to charge electric vehicles. The best graphs for exploring the effects of the Electrification sliders are the four ones under Graphs > Final Energy Consumption–Totals > Share of Capital.
To increase electrification, either focus efforts on boosting electrification or discourage the alternatives.
Encourage electrification
Electrification can be scaled up in three ways in En-ROADS:
- Subsidize purchase costs. Apply a subsidy to the purchase cost of new electric vehicle sales or building and industry equipment sales with the main Electrification sliders, or in the advanced view by using the “Electric transport subsidy” or the “Electric equipment subsidy” sliders.
- Develop charging infrastructure. While not a limitation for electric equipment in buildings and industry, charging infrastructure is essential for electric transport that relies on batteries. In En-ROADS, charging infrastructure develops to support the current demand for electric vehicles. However, delays limit the attractiveness of electric vehicles due to the time it takes to build charging infrastructure. Users can build charging infrastructure ahead of the growth in demand by using the “Build charging infrastructure to meet future demand” slider, found in the detailed settings for Transport Electrification.
- Lower electricity costs. A final way to promote the development of electrification is to lower the cost of electricity through subsidizing sources of electricity such as renewables, nuclear, and new zero-carbon energy.
Discourage alternatives to electrification
En-ROADS includes two options to discourage fuel-based alternatives to electrification:
- Restrict fuel-powered alternatives. Sales of new fuel-based vehicles (e.g., internal combustion engine vehicles) or equipment in buildings and industry (e.g., oil and gas furnaces), powered by fossil fuels or biofuels, can be restricted by using the “Fuel-powered transport sales limit” and the “Fuel-powered equipment sales limit” sliders.
- Raise the cost of fuels. Taxing oil, natural gas, bioenergy, and coal or implementing a price on carbon are examples of policies that can increase fuel costs. As a result, these indirect approaches increase the relative attractiveness of electric end-use technologies and boost their share of new sales.
The following sections provide more detailed context.Key graphs
Key graphs related to electrification are located under Graphs > Final Energy Consumption–Totals.
The “% Transport Sales by Carrier” graph shows the percentage of new transport sold each year that is powered with fossil fuels and biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen. The “% Existing Transport by Carrier” graph shows the distribution of the total transport fleet (old and new) across all energy carriers.
Energy costs and electrification
Electrification in En-ROADS responds to economic forces such as energy costs. Two scenarios that illustrate the relationship are 1) low-cost electricity from a breakthrough in new zero-carbon energy; and 2) high-cost fossil fuels due to a price on carbon.
In the first scenario, shown in the graphs below, a significant breakthrough in new zero-carbon energy occurs (New Zero-Carbon slider is set to its maximum), yet the rates of electrification for transportation (the yellow line in the left graph below) and buildings & industry (the yellow line in the right graph below) do not change much from the Baseline Scenario. The attractiveness of the electric transport and the equipment depends more on the purchase costs than on electricity costs.
The second scenario explores the effect of a $250 price on carbon. Electrification increases substantially in both transportation (yellow line in the left graph) as higher oil prices make internal combustion engines less attractive, and in buildings and industry (yellow line in the right graph) as heating and cooking with gas and oil become less appealing. The dashed Baseline Scenario lines are now visible as a point of comparison, highlighting how much higher electrification is in this scenario.
Electrification assumptions
To explore alternative electrification scenarios, adjust the following assumptions under Simulation > Assumptions > Energy > Electrification:
- “Time to build transport charging infrastructure for future demand” indicates the amount of time required to construct additional road and rail transport charging infrastructure to meet future demand. The default amount of time it takes to build additional charging infrastructure is 30 years.
- “Progress ratio” determines how much the cost of all the things that use electricity fall by learning, experience, and economies of scale.
Hydrogen as an alternative to electrification
In the advanced views of the Electrification sliders, users can simulate the growth of the hydrogen energy economy. This includes exploring hydrogen's potential as an alternative to electrification—particularly in sectors like aviation, shipping, buildings, and industry. Read the Hydrogen in En-ROADS Explainer to learn more.