The En-ROADS Baseline Scenario is not intended to capture current policy aspirations. It does not include the net-zero emissions pledges by China, South Korea, Japan, or the European Union’s Fit for 55 Plan, for instance, which have yet to be translated into binding policy.

The Baseline Scenario in En-ROADS also does not include the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement or long term continuation of other national policies. This is different from some other models’ baseline scenarios, and it is important to keep this distinction in mind. We chose to construct the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario in this way because “pledged” or “announced” policies can be altered or never be implemented. Governments change and priorities shift. As a result, you can use En-ROADS yourself to simulate the implied global effects of NDCs and other policy actions by comparing your scenario to the Baseline Scenario in which those policy actions are not taken. You can learn more about the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario in this FAQ: What is the background and meaning of the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario?

To see the NDCs in En-ROADS, look at the Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions graph. On the top-right of the graph, click the three dots and select “Show UN Pledges (NDCs).” This will display a dot indicating the approximate level of emissions in 2030 if all countries were to follow their emissions reduction pledges. This reflects Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries to the UNFCCC as of September 25 2023 (for unconditional NDCs) and November 2022 (for conditional NDCs), as modeled by the UNEP Emissions Gap Report (2023).