We have not adjusted En-ROADS in response to climate and energy impacts due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
While the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and GDP are considerable in the short term, in the long term there is not likely to be a significant change in greenhouse gas emissions and temperature as a result of the pandemic. An August 2020 study published in Nature Climate Change, for instance, estimated that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions due to the pandemic will result in only a one-hundredth of a degree Celsius cooling by 2030 (0.01 ± 0.005 °C) compared to a baseline scenario. As always, we are following the latest research and will adjust the model if the scientific consensus changes.
However, the economic recovery from the pandemic does provide an opportunity for policymakers and communities to prioritize green, low-carbon energy and policies. Recovering from the pandemic and its economic impacts will require massive investments and economic stimulus. A “green recovery” would cut CO2 emissions while boosting the economy.
Climate Interactive’s Multisolving team is tracking COVID-19 economic recovery plans that multisolve for economic recovery, equity, and climate in its Green, Resilient, and Equitable Actions for Transformation (GREAT) database. GREAT aims to collect examples of city, state, and national COVID-19 recovery plans that could also produce benefits in racial, gender, and economic equity and in climate change mitigation and resilience.