I was wondering if there is any information or analysis of the pandemic year on the baseline scenario.
I noticed that the webinar recordings from 2020 have a 4.1 rise by 2100 and the current simulator tool shows 3.6 as the baseline rise by 2100. That is a significant drop in one year. Wondering what changed in the baseline to get the decrease
Hi Nabha, great question! The change in our Baseline in December was due to some modeling improvements to the simulator:
1. Improved modeling of renewable energy. We now model wind and solar energy separately and account for historical soft costs and subsidies. As a result, renewable energy use now grows faster in En-ROADS.
2. Change in the definition of the pre-industrial temperature benchmark. The global temperature change in En-ROADS (e.g. 3.6°C in 2100 in the updated En-ROADS Baseline) measures how much the world has warmed relative to a benchmark pre-industrial time period. The temperature change in En-ROADS was previously relative to the mid-1700s (to match the approach of other models), and now it is relative to the mid-1800s, a more common time period used in climate policy.
3. Improved modeling of non-greenhouse gas forcings such as aerosols, soot, volcanoes, cloud albedo, and others.
You can read more about this update here: https://www.climateinteractive.org/analysis/en-roads-updated-with-new-baseline-scenario/. We release updates to En-ROADS monthly, and you can find the release notes in the En-ROADS User Guide here: https://docs.climateinteractive.org/projects/en-roads/en/latest/guide/changelog.html
Our modelers have been working on adding a way to model pandemic and similar crisis effects in En-ROADS, and we'll be releasing that feature in the next few months.
Here's some information on the effect of the pandemic on emissions: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210312-covid-19-paused-climate-emissions-but-theyre-rising-again
Updating this thread to let you know that we've now incorporated the effect of the pandemic into En-ROADS in the Baseline scenario, and you can also adjust different assumptions about its effects under Simulation > Assumptions > COVID-19 Impacts.
All the best,