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Effect of the pandemic year on the baseline scenario

 I was wondering if there is any information or analysis of the pandemic year on the baseline scenario.

I noticed that the webinar recordings from 2020 have a 4.1 rise by 2100 and the current simulator tool shows 3.6 as the baseline rise by 2100. That is a significant drop in one year. Wondering what changed in the baseline to get the decrease

Thanks,

Nabha


Hi Nabha, great question! The change in our Baseline in December was due to some modeling improvements to the simulator:


1. Improved modeling of renewable energy. We now model wind and solar  energy separately and account for historical soft costs and subsidies.  As a result, renewable energy use now grows faster in En-ROADS.


2. Change in the definition of the pre-industrial temperature  benchmark. The global temperature change in En-ROADS (e.g. 3.6°C in 2100  in the updated En-ROADS Baseline) measures how much the world has  warmed relative to a benchmark pre-industrial time period. The  temperature change in En-ROADS was previously relative to the mid-1700s  (to match the approach of other models), and now it is relative to the  mid-1800s, a more common time period used in climate policy.


3. Improved modeling of non-greenhouse gas forcings such as aerosols, soot, volcanoes, cloud albedo, and others.


You can read more about this update here: https://www.climateinteractive.org/analysis/en-roads-updated-with-new-baseline-scenario/. We release updates to En-ROADS monthly, and you can find the release notes in the En-ROADS User Guide here: https://docs.climateinteractive.org/projects/en-roads/en/latest/guide/changelog.html


Our modelers have been working on adding a way to model pandemic and similar crisis effects in En-ROADS, and we'll be releasing that feature in the next few months. 


Here's some information on the effect of the pandemic on emissions: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210312-covid-19-paused-climate-emissions-but-theyre-rising-again


Thanks,

Janet Chikofsky




1 person likes this

Hi Nabha, 


Updating this thread to let you know that we've now incorporated the effect of the pandemic into En-ROADS in the Baseline scenario, and you can also adjust different assumptions about its effects under Simulation > Assumptions > COVID-19 Impacts.


All the best,

Janet

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