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Effect of the pandemic year on the baseline scenario

 I was wondering if there is any information or analysis of the pandemic year on the baseline scenario.

I noticed that the webinar recordings from 2020 have a 4.1 rise by 2100 and the current simulator tool shows 3.6 as the baseline rise by 2100. That is a significant drop in one year. Wondering what changed in the baseline to get the decrease

Thanks,

Nabha

1 Comment

Hi Nabha, great question! The change in our Baseline in December was due to some modeling improvements to the simulator:


1. Improved modeling of renewable energy. We now model wind and solar  energy separately and account for historical soft costs and subsidies.  As a result, renewable energy use now grows faster in En-ROADS.


2. Change in the definition of the pre-industrial temperature  benchmark. The global temperature change in En-ROADS (e.g. 3.6°C in 2100  in the updated En-ROADS Baseline) measures how much the world has  warmed relative to a benchmark pre-industrial time period. The  temperature change in En-ROADS was previously relative to the mid-1700s  (to match the approach of other models), and now it is relative to the  mid-1800s, a more common time period used in climate policy.


3. Improved modeling of non-greenhouse gas forcings such as aerosols, soot, volcanoes, cloud albedo, and others.


You can read more about this update here: https://www.climateinteractive.org/analysis/en-roads-updated-with-new-baseline-scenario/. We release updates to En-ROADS monthly, and you can find the release notes in the En-ROADS User Guide here: https://docs.climateinteractive.org/projects/en-roads/en/latest/guide/changelog.html


Our modelers have been working on adding a way to model pandemic and similar crisis effects in En-ROADS, and we'll be releasing that feature in the next few months. 


Here's some information on the effect of the pandemic on emissions: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210312-covid-19-paused-climate-emissions-but-theyre-rising-again


Thanks,

Janet Chikofsky




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