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Reaching Net-Zero by WHEN??

"Net-Zero by 2050" has become a slogan, if not a mantra to be achieved. Yet, I have not been able to produce any realistic scenario that achieves net-zero by the end of the century, even though flattening the temperature rise to 2.0 degrees C is attainable, per En-ROADS, with a multi-pronged climate mitigation strategy. Indeed, only by maxing out most of the primary action variables does the model yield to a net-zero condition, and this only occurs around 2080.


Could some individual countries get there? Perhaps, but at what economic cost? It seems to me that we need to re-state our aspirations in temperature measurement terms.  Isn't this the real measure of our planet's health? If we set a goal of allowing the temperature to rise to no more than 1.5 degrees C by 2040, and implement realistic policies to get us there, then the model suggests that we will have a good shot at keeping the ultimate rise to below 2 degrees.


As much as I would hope to achieve the "Net-Zero by 2050" target, my En-ROADS analysis leads me to conclude that this is (a) not realistic, and (b) could lead to over dependence and investment in un-proven technologies.


Glenn Alexander


(here are links to 2 En-ROADS that depict the points above)


2.0 Degree scenario

https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?p208=2&p209=1&p39=15&p40=2022&p41=1&p42=195&p43=2023&p44=18&p47=5&p48=2026&p50=5&p60=-25&p61=-50&p74=75&p75=2030&p76=100&v=2.7.35 

 

GETTING TO A NET-ZERO WORLD BY 2075-2080 (WORLDWIDE!!)

https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?p208=2&p209=1&p1=2&p10=-0.1&p30=-0.07&p39=17&p40=2022&p41=1&p42=250&p43=2023&p44=18&p47=5&p48=2026&p50=5&p53=5&p55=5&p57=-10&p59=3&p60=-100&p61=-97&p65=100&p74=75&p75=2030&p76=100&v=2.7.35


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