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Reaching Net-Zero by WHEN??

"Net-Zero by 2050" has become a slogan, if not a mantra to be achieved. Yet, I have not been able to produce any realistic scenario that achieves net-zero by the end of the century, even though flattening the temperature rise to 2.0 degrees C is attainable, per En-ROADS, with a multi-pronged climate mitigation strategy. Indeed, only by maxing out most of the primary action variables does the model yield to a net-zero condition, and this only occurs around 2080.

Could some individual countries get there? Perhaps, but at what economic cost? It seems to me that we need to re-state our aspirations in temperature measurement terms.  Isn't this the real measure of our planet's health? If we set a goal of allowing the temperature to rise to no more than 1.5 degrees C by 2040, and implement realistic policies to get us there, then the model suggests that we will have a good shot at keeping the ultimate rise to below 2 degrees.

As much as I would hope to achieve the "Net-Zero by 2050" target, my En-ROADS analysis leads me to conclude that this is (a) not realistic, and (b) could lead to over dependence and investment in un-proven technologies.

Glenn Alexander

(here are links to 2 En-ROADS that depict the points above)

2.0 Degree scenario 



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