Tesla's Battery Day was a technical and science presentation that has long term impacts on sustainability and GHG emissions. For example, sourcing Lithium for North America from Nevada mine eliminates transportation of lithium in ships across the Pacific to China for conversion, then shipping to Japan for making cathodes and finally transporting cathodes to US.
Tesla talked about reducing waste water and other things that Climate Interactive labels as co-benefits. Tesla applies multi-solving to batteries that are then used for transpiration and stationary electricity storage.
My goal is to build a scenario that goes beyond just improved battery storage that is answered in one of the FAQs. Also, this scenario will touch on transportation, industry and buildings. And hopefully other sliders.
I want to document this scenario and maybe share online with other Tesla enthusiasts.
One problem is finding a way to compare GW from IEA with gigawatt-hour data by Tesla.
IEA (2020), Energy Storage, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-storage
Lithium-ion technology remains dominant, benefitting from spillovers in EV deployment
“A key speculation for the future of energy storage is the extent to which EV technology developments can “spill over” into grid-scale batteries. Given that the market for EV batteries is already ten times greater than for grid-scale batteries, the indirect effects of innovation and cost reductions in mobility applications could be a significant boost.”
Graph shows energy storage of 3.1 GW added in 2019 and 3.3 GW added in 2018.
So the overall decrease was 6 percent.
Grid storage decreased from 1.5 GW to 1.3 GW, for a 13.3 percent decrease.
By 2022, Tesla drives prices down by scaling up cumulative production with technology developments that include energy storage sold by Tesla for behind-the-meter and grid scale.
I think the breakthrough option is a better way to model the change than having a faster progress ratio. 0.6 is a pretty extreme level of cost decline to sustain over a long time. But you should also consider what the Tesla factory will contribute to the global average of storage capacity - how does its proposed production output compare to global battery market? Even as it adds terawatt-hour scale factories, you have to consider the rate at which low-price battery availability changes the battery market, which would probably encounter some kind of limits to growth that would make the pace of change slower than the most optimistic marketing assumptions
Having put in these caveats however, this excellent work showing how each of these assumptions affects the baseline by a couple of common metrics (ppm and cumulative emissions avoided)
You might also consider how low-price battery availability affects a couple other assumptions in that same menu - max electrification for transport and max retrofit potentials
Thank you for the excellent work
Other assumptions about battery storage, see attached.
One assumption for En-Roads that I'm questioning is the Progress Ratio.
"Progress ratio for storage"
Thanks to Janet Chikofsky for pointing this out to me.
Scenario: Does battery storage scenario enable increase in renewables with En-Roads?
Learn more about energy storage with En-Roads FAQ:
I think that you want to represent the multiple effects of improved batteries and battery supply chain. What are the effects that you have in mind? Could you think of things that a change in the supply chain would directly cause, as well as secondary changes that it might enable? Detailing your assumptions and expectations would make the scenario interesting to more people as well as more robust.
thanks for your interest,