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The Biden Climate Change Plan

Can someone or group of people look at Biden's Climate Change Plan and translate it into En-Roads? I understand that En-Roads is looking at global actions and Biden's plan is only based in the US. But it would be extremely useful to understand its effectiveness, if it was used globally. Any takers? 

I would love to have this information by August 27, the date for a climate change event I am hosting for Sister District.  


 it is better if each region (state, province) has its own unique separate program.
For example, the state of California. The refusal of the population to accumulate water from the rains, flooding of settlements with water from the rains, earthquakes, fires, burned cities, as in Australia. Death of birds and animals. Growth of deserts, unemployment, evacuation of the population.Damage to farmers.
In Massachusetts. The death of frogs from drought, an increase in the number of tornadoes-starvation in herons. Their flights in search of food in quiet regions. The increase in the number of tornadoes and thunderstorms, hurricanes in the summer. Flooding from hurricanes.

it is better if each region (state, province) has its own unique separate program.
For example, the state of California. The refusal of the population to accumulate water from the rains, flooding of settlements with water from the rains, earthquakes, fires, burned cities, as in Australia. Death of birds and animals. Growth of deserts, unemployment, evacuation of the population. Damage to farmers.
In Massachusetts. The death of frogs from drought, an increase in the number of tornadoes-starvation in herons. Their flights in search of food in quiet regions. The increase in the number of tornadoes and thunderstorms, hurricanes in the summer. Flooding from hurricanes.

I am not asking for better or worse. I just want to help people understand what Biden's plan would do for the climate. And I know Biden's plan is only for the US. I am asking if someone could use En-Roads to illustrate its effectiveness by assuming that it is a world wide plan, just to illustrate the effect. 

I'm looking to do something like this - put a specific version of Biden's plans into EnROADS, and look at the output. I'm surprised that nobody else has already done this. I might be able to do it (though not by your deadline, sorry), but I'm still hopeful that someone else already has and I'm just not finding it.

Thanks Debra. The event was last Thursday, so don’t worry about a specific date anymore. Still a very important project though. Hope you can figure it out. It might be very difficult because the policies seem so amorphous.

I also would be most interested to know how to enter Biden's climate plan into EnRoads. I am doing a virtual presentation to a local library on Oct 13 and would like to use his plan to demonstrate how ER works and what his plan does for the climate. It seems there would need to be a lot of approximating how much to move the sliders. Any thoughts would be great. Thanks, Paul Perkins, Bath, Me. 

Translating general ideas into EnRoads will be difficult.  I found this link below.

The plan emphasizes Jobs!Jobs!Jobs! and isn't detailed about reducing CO2 or GHG emissions.


How do you use sliders to invest $2 trillion?

Why create a million new jobs in auto industry when by 2025, no NEW gas cars will be built?


Maybe you can use sliders for:

"Power Sector: Move ambitiously to generate clean, American-made electricity to achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035"

"Buildings: Upgrade 4 million buildings and weatherize 2 million homes over 4 years"


https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/


I'm attempting to get a rough idea of the effect of the Biden Administration's Infrastructure plan on carbon emissions and the temperature increase by 2100 using EnROADS.  I will share this information with leaders of the United Methodist Church to support advocacy for action on climate change.  


I appreciate any comments on this scenario.  Understanding that EnROADS models the world, I was conservative regarding the influence of these policies.


The following changes are reflected in the scenario at:  https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=2.7.38&p16=-0.01&p30=-0.03&p45=10&p46=2024&p47=3.1&p53=2.2&g0=2&g1=62


1. Incentives for renewables and nuclear modeled by moving slider about 1/3 of total.

2. Improvement in building efficiency modeled by moving slider about 1/2 of total.

3. Improvement in electrifying transportation modeled by moving slider about 1/2 of total.

4. Clean Energy Standard modeled by starting the Energy Performance Standard maximum amount of 10 ton CO-2/TJ starting in 2024 (see following graph which indicates about 3 years to implement CES).  Graph is curtesy of Citizens' Climate Lobby with reference: 

 https://us.energypolicy.solutions/scenarios/home?locale=en#


Clean Energy Standards vs. Carbon Fee and Dividend


Hi all,

if it's any use for you out there, we actually quantified the emissions impact of the Biden campaign plans back in November (not using EnRoads of course).

The results can be found here (38-54% below 2005 by 2030 - not quite 1.5 C compatible but almost):
https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/us-and-china-climate-goals-scenarios-2030-and-mid-century

Here's my scenario using the broad strokes from current policy initiatives PLUS a carbon fee (remove it to see it's effect)  I'd be happy to assist with a presentation.  email: cclbroward@gmail.com

Thanks!  I didn't see deforestation in Biden's plans --  please send a link to your EnROADS model. I think his plan focuses more on electric vehicles than on transportation energy efficiency.  I didn't give full credit for the subsidies, etc., since they aren't world wide.


Thanks so much for sharing -- really want to make sure that the representation of the effect of carbon pricing is representative.  I've already given the presentation to the United Methodist Church, but will let you know if other opportunities present themselves.


Best, Jan Berry


Hi Jan,

I plan on introducing this scenario as Biden's broad strokes, quickly touching on the levers indicated and asking for feedback as there are so many parts of the Infrastructure bill it's hard to keep perspective.  Then show how a carbon fee can bring us under 1,5 if implemented soon.  Here are a couple scenarios: https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=2.7.39&p1=3&p10=0.2&p23=1&p39=245&p42=10&p47=4.8&p50=0.6&p53=5&p55=0.1&p59=-96&p65=2&p67=99

Thank you Jeff!  Interesting. Unfortunately, I have the link to only one model, not two.  The screen short is not readable.  


It would be interesting to model a clean energy standard (or emission performance standard in ENROADS) since this is part of the Biden Administration's plan.  


I see that you modeled the carbon price starting at $245 in 2021.   Is anyone proposing to start a carbon fee at that price?


Thanks!

Jan Berry

Hi Jan,


I think the 245 is what the simulator sets if you just put the highest carbon price, which the EICDA could hit in16 years or less.  I think the best energy standard guess might be to highly tax coal. BTW, what happens to power companies if they don't reach their goals...a fine?  In effect, raising the cost of coal fired electricity.


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