Start a new topic

## Slider Impact on Temperature

I pushed each slider all the way, one at a time.
How much is max reduction of global temperature in degrees Celsius for each slider?
Then there is competition and co-benefits, so these are not additive.
But interesting none the less, maybe to prioritize actions?
To not waste money and time on actions with no temperature impact?

 Energy Supply degrees Celsius Coal 0.3 Renewables 0.2 Oil 0.0 Nuclear 0.2 Natural Gas 0.0 New Technology 0.3 Bioenergy 0.0 Carbon Price 1.0 Transport Energy Efficiency 0.2 Electrification 0.1 Buildings and Industry Energy Efficiency 0.6 Electrification 0.0 Growth Population 0.3 Economic Growth 0.4 Land and Industry Emissions Deforestation 0.1 Methane & Other 0.6 Carbon Removal Afforestation 0.1 Technological 0.4

That's an interesting exercise thanks for sharing the results!  Did you trying moving every lever in the direction to reduce the temp - from the dynamic modeling talk I assume they dont add up.  What is that number?  (I guess I can do myself at this point .....)  Will be back with and answer.

Thanks for sharing. And important to note that some sliders are much more impactful in combination with others. For example, electrification alone doesn't help reduce temperature much, but when paired with actions that create a low carbon electricity grid it is much more beneficial! An electric car is only as clean as the electricity that charges it.

2 people like this

Yes, and that is the type of combination scenario I need to investigate next.

Thanks Ellie

Another thing to be careful of here is that the real world difficulty/cost/effort of pulling each lever is not equal...

Some of my students also toyed around with moving every slider (including all details) and got to 0.6C or so.  They were more just playing around than anything, but it was a good demonstration that we have already locked in a certain amount of extra energy that will take a long time to dissipate.

I have tried multiple scenarios using individual levers and levers in combination to determine impact on temperature. I discovered that on many of the strategies there is an initial impact on lowering temperature, but at a certain point, the amount of impact on temperature decreases or stagnates regardless of how much more of that strategy is employed. In economic terms, this would relate to "marginal utility", or the amount of benefit that is gained relative to the amount of investment in the strategy. Having witnessed this through multiple scenarios, I started using levers only to the point that it started to result in diminishing marginal utility. In real terms, this would be targeting investment, taxing, etc. only to the point of diminishing marginal utility, and spreading investment, taxing, etc. over multiple strategies that would produce the most efficient return in terms of reduction of temperature.