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Richard Turnock
Successful Scenario
https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?p1=40&p7=44&p10=2.1&p16=-0.04&p23=-13&p30=-0.03&p35=1&p39=119&p47=3.3&p50=2.9&p53=2.3&p55=1.7&p57=-3.9&p59=-30&p63=1.9&p64=2.3&p65=52&p67=22&g0=103&g1=86&v=2.7.6
Actions & Outcomes
Actions
Coal (tax/subsidy) = 40 $/tce
Oil (tax/subsidy) = 44 $/boe
Natural Gas (tax/subsidy) = 2.1 $/Mcf
Bioenergy (tax/subsidy) = -13 $/boe
Renewables (tax/subsidy) = -0.04 $/kWh
Nuclear (tax/subsidy) = -0.03 $/kWh
New Technology breakthrough = 1
Carbon price = 119 $/ton
Transport energy efficiency = 2.9 percent/year
Transport electrification = 2.3 percent/year
Buildings and industry energy efficiency = 3.3 percent/year
Electrification of buildings and industry = 1.7 percent/year
Population (UN Scenario range) = 1.9
Economic growth (GDP per person) = 2.3 percent/year
Deforestation (reduce/increase) = -3.9 percent/year
Methane and other gases (reduce/increase) = -30 %
Percent available land for afforestation = 52 %
Technological carbon removal (% of max potential) = 22 %
Outcomes
Temperature increase in 2100 2.0ºC / 3.6ºF
CO2 Concentration in 2100 455 ppm
Sea Level Rise in 2100 1.0 m / 3.3 ft
Cumulative avoided CO2 by 2100 4354 gigatons CO2